Researchers at the U.S. National Science Foundation National Center for Atmospheric Research (NSF NCAR) and Southwest Research Institute (SwRI) have developed a groundbreaking tool that takes a significant step toward advanced warnings of space weather. This tool, called PINNBARDS, has the potential to forecast space weather weeks in advance, rather than just hours, allowing agencies and industries to mitigate impacts to GPS, power grids, astronaut safety, and more.
The research team's paper, published in The Astrophysical Journal, highlights how PINNBARDS bridges surface observations of solar active regions and deep solar magnetic dynamics. By combining physics-informed neural networks with AI, the tool provides insights into the global sources of active regions that produce space weather. This is crucial for understanding and anticipating extreme space weather events.
Mausumi Dikpati, a senior scientist at NSF NCAR who led the team, explains that PINNBARDS can predict the emergence of large, flare-producing active regions weeks in advance. This is made possible by reconstructing subsurface states and using them as initial conditions for forward simulations of solar magnetic evolution. The tool's ability to forecast long-term space weather is a significant advancement in the field.
The research utilized the Derecho supercomputer at the NSF NCAR-Wyoming Supercomputing Center, funded by NASA's Heliophysics Guest Investigator Open (HGIO) program and Consequences of Fields and Flows in the Interior and Exterior of the Sun (COFFIES) DRIVE Center. This collaboration between physics-based modeling and AI allows scientists to peer beneath the Sun's surface and understand the magnetic conditions that give rise to active regions.
This breakthrough in space weather forecasting is a significant step forward, offering the potential to safeguard satellites, communications infrastructure, and future human space exploration. As the research continues, it will be fascinating to see how PINNBARDS and similar tools evolve to provide even more accurate and timely warnings of space weather events.
